19 Jun Investigating the Relationship Between Duel Wins and Match Outcomes in Football: An Analysis of the 2023/24 LALIGA EA Sports Season
Abstract
In football, it is often believed that teams winning more duels on the field are more likely to win the match. This study investigates this hypothesis by analyzing data from the 2023/24 LALIGA EA Sports season. Using multinomial logistic regression and other statistical methods, we examined the relationship between duel wins and match outcomes. Our findings indicate that while there may be an initial intuition suggesting a positive correlation, this relationship is not statistically significant. This highlights the importance of rigorous data analysis over superficial conclusions in understanding football match dynamics.
Introduction
Football, being a complex and multifaceted sport, involves various metrics that can potentially influence the outcome of a match. One such metric is the number of duels won by a team during a match. Duels, moments of contesting the ball between players, are crucial in determining possession and momentum within the game. The common belief is that a team winning more duels is more likely to win the match. This study aims to scrutinize this belief using statistical methods to determine if there is a significant relationship between duel wins and match outcomes.
Methodology
Data Collection
The data for this study was collected from the 2023/24 season of LALIGA EA Sports. Each match provided detailed statistics on duel wins, categorized into aerial, defensive, offensive, and terrestrial duels. Additionally, match outcomes in terms of goals scored and conceded were recorded.
Preliminary Analysis
Initially, we performed a simple observational analysis. Graphs and basic statistics were used to explore the relationship between the number of duels won and match outcomes. Of the 380 matches analyzed, it was noted that in over 60% of the cases, the team winning more duels also won the match. This preliminary analysis suggested a potential trend that warranted further investigation.
Statistical Analysis
To rigorously test the hypothesis, we employed multinomial logistic regression. This method allowed us to model the probability of a team winning, drawing, or losing a match based on the number of duels won. Additional variables such as goals scored and goals conceded were included to account for other influencing factors.
Multinomial Logistic Regression
The multinomial logistic regression model was used to analyze the relationship between the difference in duels won and the match outcome. The model considered the following predictors:
- Aerial duels won
- Defensive duels won
- Offensive duels won
- Terrestrial duels won
- Goals scored
- Goals conceded
Model Evaluation
The performance of the model was evaluated using standard metrics such as precision, recall, and F1-score. Additionally, the significance of the predictors was assessed to determine their impact on the match outcome.
Results
Preliminary Analysis
The initial observational analysis indicated that teams winning more duels tended to win more matches. This was observed in over 60% of the matches analyzed. However, this simple correlation did not account for other potential influencing factors.
Multinomial Logistic Regression
The regression model revealed the following key points:
- The coefficients for duel wins were low, indicating a weak relationship between duels won and match outcomes.
- The predicted probabilities showed little variation, suggesting that duel wins were not strong predictors of match outcomes.
- Including additional variables such as goals scored and conceded did not significantly improve the predictive power of the model.
The model’s overall performance, with precision, recall, and F1-scores close to 1.00, suggested potential overfitting, which indicates that while the model fits the training data well, it may not generalize effectively to new data.
Discussion
Why a Positive Relationship Cannot Be Concluded
Despite the initial impression that winning more duels correlates with winning matches, the rigorous statistical analysis revealed no significant relationship. Several factors explain this:
- Correlation vs. Causation:
- The presence of a correlation does not imply causation. Just because teams winning more duels often win matches, it does not mean that winning duels causes match wins.
- Complexity of Football:
- Football outcomes are influenced by numerous factors, including strategy, tactics, referee decisions, and individual player skills. Duels are just one part of the game.
- Rigorous Testing:
- The statistical tests did not provide sufficient evidence to confirm that winning more duels significantly increases the chances of winning a match.
Implications for Football Analysis
This study underscores the importance of comprehensive and rigorous data analysis in sports. Simple correlations can be misleading, and only through detailed statistical methods can accurate insights be gained. Football analysts and coaches should consider multiple factors and use robust statistical techniques to understand game dynamics better.
Conclusion
Our investigation into the relationship between duel wins and match outcomes in the 2023/24 LALIGA EA Sports season revealed that there is no statistically significant correlation. While winning duels might intuitively seem to contribute to match success, the reality is much more complex. This study highlights the necessity of rigorous scientific methods in sports analysis to avoid superficial conclusions.