05 Dic Beyond Media Narratives: The Scientific Truth About Effective Time and Possession in Football
For years, football discussions in the media have emphasized the importance of effective time and possession as the keys to success. But do these narratives hold up under scientific scrutiny? Our rigorous data analysis of the 2023/24 LALIGA EA Sports season challenges popular assumptions and reveals surprising insights into what really impacts team performance.
Methodology: A Scientific Approach
This study examined all matches from the 2023/24 season, dividing results into two categories: won matches (3 points) versus not won matches (0 or 1 point). The analysis was conducted on a team-by-team basis, ensuring tailored insights instead of generalizations.
We used:
- Statistical tests (e.g., t-tests) to compare average effective time and possession between these categories.
- Correlation analysis to explore relationships between performance (points) and the metrics studied.
- Bootstrap resampling to ensure robust results for teams with fewer matches in certain categories (e.g., Real Madrid or FC Barcelona, which lose very few matches).
This rigorous approach ensures that the results are rooted in data and not in subjective interpretations.
What Did We Discover?
1. Effective time is not always key to winning
- For most teams, effective time is not directly linked to results. High effective playing time doesn’t necessarily guarantee victories.
- Interesting cases:
- UD Almería: Wins more matches when there is more effective playing time. This suggests a reliance on fluid gameplay to achieve better results.
- D Alavés, Valencia CF, and FC Barcelona: Perform better in matches with less effective playing time, challenging the idea that fluidity always benefits teams.
2. Possession doesn’t guarantee success either
- Only a few teams show a significant relationship between possession and results.
- D Alavés and Sevilla FC: Perform better with less possession, reflecting an effective approach based on quick transitions or capitalizing on key moments.
- Surprisingly, even FC Barcelona, a team traditionally associated with total ball control, achieves better results in matches with less possession.
3. Each team requires a personalized approach
The team-by-team analysis is crucial. The data reveals no universal pattern: what works for one team might be irrelevant — or even counterproductive — for another. For instance:
- Teams that thrive without the ball: Sevilla FC and D Alavés find ways to succeed without dominating possession.
- Teams that benefit from more effective time: UD Almería needs more fluid games to maximize its performance.
How Can Coaches Apply These Results?
- Design training sessions tailored to your team’s style:
- Teams that benefit from less effective time or possession (like D Alavés): Focus on solid defensive strategies, quick transitions, and capitalizing on opponent errors.
- Teams that thrive with more effective time (like UD Almería): Simulate matches with fewer interruptions and work on maintaining physical intensity over longer periods.
- Plan match strategies based on opponents:
- Analyze opponents and the type of match expected. If the opponent tends to reduce effective time, adjust your tactics to exploit this context.
- Challenge preconceived ideas:
- Don’t assume that more possession or more effective time is always better. Instead, prioritize how your team executes its strategy within the match context.
- Adapt performance analysis:
- Evaluate the metrics that truly matter for your team. Possession minutes or effective time may be secondary indicators for certain playing styles.
Conclusion: Break the Myths
This study demonstrates that neither effective playing time nor possession are universal keys to success in football. The real focus should be on how teams leverage these circumstances to maximize their performance. Our analysis highlights the importance of moving beyond simplistic media narratives and relying on rigorous, data-driven insights to inform training and match strategies.