03 Oct What truly separates the Champion from the Runner-up in LaLiga? It’s not what you think.
What truly separates the Champion from the Runner-up?
Picture yourself on the training ground. You are preparing your team for the decisive weeks of the season. The scouting reports confirm what you already know: your rival has attacking firepower, the kind of players who fill highlight reels and transfer-market headlines. The question arises:
If both teams are outstanding in attack… where will the difference that decides the title really come from?
For years, the conventional wisdom has been clear: the champion wins because they attack better. Our latest research, however, challenges this assumption—and the evidence is compelling.
From Academia to the Pitch
This research was first published in a peer-reviewed journal, following strict scientific and methodological standards. But science is only valuable when it makes an impact on the pitch. Our aim at the Football Intelligence & Performance Department at LALIGA is to ensure that knowledge transcends academia and helps coaches, trainers and analysts make better decisions.
Methods – How we asked the question
We analysed six consecutive LaLiga EA Sports seasons (2019/20–2024/25), focusing exclusively on the two teams fighting for the title each year: Champion vs Runner-up.
We applied four efficiency metrics that capture both offensive and defensive performance in a comparable way:
- Offensive build-up efficiency: % of possessions that end in a shot.
- Offensive finishing efficiency: % of shots that become goals.
- Defensive containment efficiency: % of rival possessions prevented from ending in a shot.
- Defensive avoidance efficiency: % of rival shots that did not become goals.
This match-by-match dataset—spanning over 200 games—was tested with paired statistics (t-tests and Wilcoxon) to identify which differences were statistically significant.
Results – A clear break in the pattern
- 2019/20 and 2020/21: Champions were superior offensively (build-up and finishing). The traditional narrative held true.
- 2021/22 to 2024/25 (four consecutive seasons): Champions consistently outperformed runners-up in defensive metrics.
- 21/22 → Defensive avoidance
- 22/23 → Defensive containment
- 23/24 → Defensive avoidance
- 24/25 → Defensive containment
📊 In short: the last four LaLiga titles were decided not by attacking brilliance, but by defensive efficiency.
Discussion – Why this matters
This finding directly contrasts with earlier scientific literature:
- López-Valenciano et al. (2021) showed that offensive finishing was the most powerful predictor of success (data from 2017/18–2018/19).
- Del Coso et al. (2020) found that winning away games, with fewer shots and corners conceded, was decisive (data from 2010–2018).
Our analysis reveals a shift in competitive balance: what used to be an offensive advantage has transformed into a defensive differentiator.
Why? Because both contenders are already elite offensively. With world-class forwards and creative midfielders, the offensive baseline is extraordinarily high. The “hidden” excellence—the factor that tips the balance—is defensive efficiency: preventing finalisations and neutralising shots.
Practical implications for coaches and analysts
- Training design: If you aspire to win LaLiga, training defensive containment under positional play and pressing structures is not optional—it is decisive.
- Match preparation: Against direct rivals, small defensive margins (2–4% better containment/avoidance) can equal 10–15 points across a season.
- Squad building: While star forwards attract the headlines, the silent edge comes from defenders and goalkeepers who reduce shot quality and conversion.
- Performance analysis: Don’t overvalue offensive differences when both teams are elite; look closely at defensive metrics that reveal the decisive margins.
Conclusion – The “provocative” takeaway
For fans and media, the story of football is written in goals and attacking flair. But our research over six seasons shows a more uncomfortable truth:
👉 In modern LaLiga, the Champion does not simply outscore the Runner-up. The Champion defends better.
If you want to win LaLiga today, your team must be more efficient defensively than your direct rival. That is the challenge for FC Barcelona and Real Madrid in 2025/26.
References
- López-Valenciano A., et al. (2021). Association between offensive and defensive playing style variables and ranking position in LaLiga. Journal of Sports Sciences. DOI: 10.1080/02640414.2021.1976488
- Del Coso J., et al. (2020). The football championship is won when playing away: difference in match statistics between the winner and the second-place team in LaLiga. International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport. DOI: 10.1080/24748668.2020.1801201
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