The Relationship Between the Defensive Line and Goals Conceded: Insights from the 2023/24 LaLiga EA Sports Season

22 Jul The Relationship Between the Defensive Line and Goals Conceded: Insights from the 2023/24 LaLiga EA Sports Season

In our detailed analysis of the 2023/24 LaLiga EA Sports season, we explored how the position of a team’s defensive line when the opponent has possession affects the number of goals conceded. This analysis provides valuable and practical conclusions that coaches can use to optimize their defensive strategies.

Note: This analysis excludes matches where both teams conceded the same number of goals, focusing only on matches where one of the teams conceded more goals than the other.

General Conclusion: Pushing the Defensive Line Higher Increases the Risk of Conceding Goals

The data shows a significant relationship between pushing the defensive line higher and the number of goals conceded. Generally, teams that push their defensive line higher than their average tend to concede more goals.

• Dynamic Play: In 52.3% of the matches, teams that pushed their defensive line higher than their average conceded more goals than their rivals.

In-Depth Analysis: Counterattacks, Direct Play, and Associative Play

By delving deeper into the different types of play, we found that the effects of pushing the defensive line higher vary:

• Counterattacks:
  • In 52.3% of the matches, teams that pushed their defensive line higher than their average conceded more goals from counterattacks.
  This significant relationship shows that teams are vulnerable to the opponent’s quick transitions when their defense is pushed up.
• Direct Play:
  • In 61.9% of the matches, teams that pushed their defensive line higher than their average conceded more goals from direct play.
  This type of play also shows a significant relationship, indicating that the opponent’s direct play can exploit a high defensive line.
• Associative Play:
  • In 49.0% of the matches, teams that pushed their defensive line higher than their average conceded more goals from associative play.
  The relationship here is less significant, suggesting that the position of the defensive line has less impact on this type of play.

Impact on Match Results

The analysis of match results reveals that teams tend to push their defensive line higher in matches they lose compared to matches they do not lose (won or drawn). The averages are clear:

• Lost Matches: Average of 32.73 meters.
• Non-Lost Matches: Average of 32.16 meters.

This suggests that pushing the defensive line higher may be linked to a greater risk of losing matches.

Teams That Manage a High Defensive Line Well

However, not all teams are affected in the same way. Some teams manage to maintain a high defensive line without conceding significantly more goals. This suggests that these teams have effective defensive strategies or a playing style that allows them to «afford» pushing their line higher without compromising their defensive solidity.

Teams That Stand Out (Ranked from Highest to Lowest Capacity):

1. RCD Mallorca: Average defensive line 29.55 meters, average goal deviation -0.229.
2. UD Las Palmas: Average defensive line 34.00 meters, average goal deviation -0.140.
3. UD Almería: Average defensive line 31.23 meters, average goal deviation -0.073.
4. Real Madrid: Average defensive line 33.05 meters, average goal deviation -0.071.
5. RC Celta: Average defensive line 31.32 meters, average goal deviation -0.061.
6. D. Alavés: Average defensive line 31.31 meters, average goal deviation -0.053.
7. Cádiz CF: Average defensive line 30.18 meters, average goal deviation -0.004.

These teams demonstrate that it is possible to maintain a high defensive line without significantly increasing the number of goals conceded, likely due to their tactical organization and ability to effectively press the opponent.

Ranking of Average Defensive Line

To avoid confusion, here is the ranking of teams by the average position of their defensive line when the opponent has possession:

1. ATHLETIC CLUB: 35.14 meters
2. FC BARCELONA: 34.67 meters
3. REAL SOCIEDAD: 34.55 meters
4. GETAFE CF: 34.42 meters
5. UD LAS PALMAS: 34.00 meters
6. REAL MADRID: 33.05 meters
7. SEVILLA FC: 32.85 meters
8. REAL BETIS: 32.81 meters
9. CA OSASUNA: 32.81 meters
10. VALENCIA CF: 32.62 meters
11. GRANADA CF: 31.96 meters
12. GIRONA FC: 31.60 meters
13. RC CELTA: 31.32 meters
14. D. ALAVES: 31.31 meters
15. VILLARREAL CF: 31.24 meters
16. UD ALMERIA: 31.23 meters
17. RAYO VALLECANO: 31.22 meters
18. ATLETICO DE MADRID: 30.79 meters
19. CADIZ CF: 30.18 meters
20. RCD MALLORCA: 29.55 meters

Practical Applications for Coaches

Evaluation of Playing Style: Before pushing the defensive line higher, it is crucial to assess whether the team has the organizational capacity and defensive speed to handle the opponent’s quick transitions. Teams like Real Madrid and UD Las Palmas can serve as models in this regard.

Training Transitions: Since the risk of conceding goals increases with counterattacks and direct play, training defenders to handle quick transitions and reorganize rapidly will be key.

Opponent Analysis: Some teams may need to adjust their defensive line based on the opponent. Teams with fast and efficient counterattacking forwards may require a more conservative defensive line.

Use of Data: Regularly monitoring and analyzing defensive line data and goals conceded can help adjust tactics throughout the season.

Conclusion

The analysis of the 2023/24 LaLiga EA Sports season provides valuable insights into the relationship between the defensive line and goals conceded. While pushing the defensive line higher can increase the risk of conceding more goals, some teams manage to mitigate this risk through effective organization and tactics. Coaches can use these findings to adjust their defensive strategies, improving their chances of success on the field.