30 Abr Why Mistakes Matter: A New Way to Analyze Error in Professional Football
Introduction
In professional football, error is one of the most decisive factors in performance. Yet it remains one of the least rigorously analyzed. From the Football Intelligence & Performance department at LALIGA, we have developed a research-based method to measure error more fairly, accurately, and in a way that is directly applicable to high-performance environments.
This work is built around three core messages:
- Error is one of the most influential aspects of performance but also one of the least studied.
- We have created a player-level error index, adjusted for game phase and contextualized by team style.
- Player position significantly affects the type and frequency of errors.
The goal is clear: to provide coaches with a practical tool to improve training planning, make more informed decisions, and analyze performance more fairly.
What We Measured and How
The study analyzed data from over 400 LALIGA EA SPORTS players across a full season. The focus was to identify who makes more mistakes, in what situations, and how context affects them.
What is considered an error?
Errors were defined as individual unsuccessful actions in two main phases of play:
- Offensive errors: missed passes, lost possessions, failed dribbles or shots, inaccurate crosses, and poor first touches.
- Defensive errors: missed tackles, and aerial or ground duels lost.
How the index was created
One of the most relevant contributions of this research is the development of an Error Index adjusted to each player’s context and role. The methodology aimed to correct for several common biases found in traditional technical analysis:
- Separation by game phase: offensive and defensive errors were analyzed independently based on whether the player’s team had possession.
- Minutes by phase: instead of using total playing time, we calculated the actual minutes each player participated in offensive or defensive phases of play. This allowed us to neutralize the influence of team playing style (e.g., high-possession teams vs teams that mostly defend).
- Action-based normalization: since some actions occur far more frequently than others (e.g., passes vs shots), we normalized each type of error using a min-max scale, giving them equal weight in the final index.
- Quartiles by playing time: players were grouped into four quartiles according to their total minutes played, which allowed for fair comparisons across different levels of match exposure.
Key Findings
1. Offensive errors are most frequent in attacking and wide positions
Across all quartiles, central defenders consistently had the lowest offensive error index. This trend held true regardless of whether the player was a starter or had fewer minutes.
By contrast, fullbacks, wingers, and forwards showed the highest rate of offensive errors, due to a greater number of dribbles, crosses, and risky attacking actions.
Coaching implications:
These positions naturally involve more risk and decision-making. Rather than avoiding error, training should focus on managing error under realistic, high-pressure scenarios.
2. Forwards are most exposed to defensive errors
In all groups, forwards recorded the highest rate of defensive errors, struggling in pressing situations, duels, and defensive recoveries.
Meanwhile, central defenders and central midfielders showed stronger defensive performance.
Coaching implications:
If your game model requires high pressing or fast defensive transitions, defensive training for forwards should be a priority, ideally integrated into game-like tasks that simulate recovery scenarios.
3. Position—not playing time—determines the error profile
One of the most relevant findings is that differences in error across positions remain significant even after controlling for playing time.
In other words, these differences are not explained by fatigue, match rhythm, or exposure. They are structural and role-specific.
Coaching implications:
Technical staff should assess player error not in absolute terms, but relative to each player’s position and function. This allows for better training design, fairer performance evaluations, and more informed tactical decisions.
Practical Takeaways for Coaching Staff
This research introduces a new way to understand and train for error in professional football. The Error Index developed allows coaches to assess players in context—by role, phase of play, and exposure—offering a deeper, fairer picture of performance.
What you can apply immediately:
- Position-specific training design, based on the most frequent types of errors per role.
- Contextualized performance analysis, avoiding unfair comparisons between players in different roles or systems.
- Better tactical decisions, supported by error data that reflects both function and context.
In a professional environment where small margins decide results, analyzing error with this level of detail becomes a competitive advantage.
From the Football Intelligence & Performance department at LALIGA
We will continue developing methodologies that turn raw data into decisions, and scientific research into practical tools for professional coaching environments.
Most reliable players by position (Q4 – LALIGA EA SPORTS 2023/24)
To make this analysis even more practical, we identified the players in the highest playing-time quartile (Q4) who recorded the lowest error indices by position, both in offensive and defensive phases.
This provides clear reference profiles for coaches looking to benchmark player reliability by role and context.
4.1 Players with the lowest offensive error index by position:
- Central Defender: Witsel (Atlético de Madrid) — Offensive Error Index: 0.84
- Central Midfielder: B. Soumaré (Sevilla FC) — 0.97
- Wide Defender: Álex Suárez (UD Las Palmas) — 1.36
- Forward: Myrto Uzuni (Granada CF) — 2.47
- Wide Midfielder: Marcos Llorente (Atlético de Madrid) — 2.69
These players demonstrate high technical consistency in offensive actions despite playing extensive minutes. They excel in minimizing costly mistakes in ball progression, passing, and finishing phases.
4.2 Players with the lowest defensive error index by position:
- Forward: Dovbyk (Girona FC) — Defensive Error Index: 0.10
- Wide Midfielder: Greenwood (Getafe CF) — 0.45
- Central Defender: Rüdiger (Real Madrid) — 0.54
- Wide Defender: Ricard (Granada CF) — 0.55
- Central Midfielder: B. Soumaré (Sevilla FC) — 0.58
These players are the most secure profiles in defensive transitions, duels, and pressing actions in their respective positions. Their data-driven reliability makes them strong references for designing defensive roles and evaluating performance beyond intuition.