11 Nov Do Real Madrid and FC Barcelona dominate because they keep the ball—or because they control the space?
Football has long equated dominance with possession.
But what if the real indicator of control isn’t how long you keep the ball, but how fast you can reach it?
In collaboration between LaLiga’s Football Intelligence & Performance Department, the University of Zaragoza and the Universidad Rey Juan Carlos, we published a study in Scientific Reports (Nature Portfolio, 2025)—one of the world’s leading peer-reviewed scientific journals.
The research introduces a new way to measure control of the pitch using tracking data from 100 LaLiga matches (2019/20 season)—and the results redefine what it means to “dominate” a football game.
1. Control without possession: a paradigm shift
Traditional analysis often confuses dominance with possession.
Yet possession describes what a team has, while pitch control describes what a team can reach.
Our model quantifies the probability that any player—or team—would arrive first to any point on the pitch if the ball were played there.
This isn’t based on who currently holds possession, but on who could control that space faster.
It’s a dynamic concept of control, calculated using:
- Players’ exact positions, movement direction, and current speed.
- Their individual top speeds (95th percentile, v₉₅).
- A reaction time and acceleration profile for realistic behavior.
The result? A map of the field that shows, at every moment, which team dominates the playable space—not in theory, but in probability.
2. When speed meets structure
This research combines spatial organization and physical capacity in a single equation.
Each player projects an area of influence—a region where they can arrive before any opponent.
The overlap of these areas defines how well organized a team is.
- A team with strong structure and short distances between lines maximizes collective control.
- A team with scattered spacing or slower reactions leaves “voids” of opportunity.
So pitch control becomes a new, objective way to measure how well a team is organized physically and tactically—independent of ball possession.
3. The unexpected similarity: Barça, Madrid… Getafe, Eibar
When applying this model to LaLiga’s 2019/20 season, the results were eye-opening.
At the top of the chart sat Real Madrid and FC Barcelona, unsurprisingly—but next to them appeared two unlikely neighbors: Getafe and Eibar.
How can teams with such different playing styles produce comparable spatial dominance?
- Real Madrid and Barcelona expand control through positional structure—high possession, width, and synchronized spacing.
They stretch the field and keep stable control zones throughout both halves. - Getafe and Eibar, under Bordalás and Mendilibar, achieve similar dominance through compression and intensity—pressing, direct play, and physical synchrony.
They shrink the field, closing down spaces faster than anyone else.
Different methods, same outcome: space ownership.
The model doesn’t reward who holds the ball, but who controls the environment where football happens.
🧠 Tactical takeaway:
Positional dominance (Barça, Madrid) and reactive intensity (Getafe, Eibar) can both lead to high spatial control—one expands time and space, the other compresses it.
4. Physical stamina reshapes tactical control
The study also introduced a stamina factor (ξ), simulating how changes in top speed—due to fatigue or improved conditioning—alter pitch control.
A simple 5–10% drop in running speed caused a disproportionate loss of spatial control, especially in defensive phases.
Interestingly, the effect was logarithmic: the first small decrease in speed had the biggest tactical cost.
This finding quantifies something every coach senses—
Fatigue doesn’t just slow players; it reshapes the team’s collective control of the pitch.
5. What the data tells us about organization
Looking at the whole league:
- Teams in the top half of the table (Madrid, Barça, Sevilla) maintained high spatial control in both halves.
- Teams like Atlético de Madrid started strong but lost control in the second half—a possible indicator of tactical or physical decay.
- Reactive teams (Valladolid, Alavés, Mallorca) consistently showed lower control, reflecting a more passive use of space.
The message for coaches:
Dominating the game means dominating where the game can be played—whether you keep the ball or not.
6. Science meets practice
This study marks a milestone: LaLiga data analysed through the lens of complexity science and validated by one of the most prestigious journals in the world.
It bridges academic rigor and practical football intelligence, providing tools that allow coaches to see:
- How well organized their team really is.
- How fatigue changes the geometry of their control.
- How different tactical systems “own” the pitch in distinct ways.
This is not theory—it’s applied science that turns the invisible geometry of football into measurable reality.
📄 Full open-access article: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-22778-6
🎙️ Related podcast: https://open.spotify.com/episode/7iXMMWFxmhGrwYTvCvyLbD?si=6ddryNKATmqGV_5uU2MnSw